Modelling avocado-driven deforestation in Michoacán, Mexico

Abstract As demand for avocado climbs, production in Michoacán—Mexico’s biggest growing region—expands into new places. We use a spatial probit model to project the geographic distribution of likely future expansion and analyze those results determine (a) threats specific forest types (b) how is shifting spatially under current climate scenarios. Our suggest that Michoacán strongly driven by distance existing agriculture, roads, localities, as well dwindling availability Andosol soils. ensues, it presents risk loss across various types, with pine-oak forest, mesophilic montane oyamel fir being particular concern. Moreover, our will occupy wider ranges terms temperature, precipitation, slope steepness soil. The predicts change alter plantings, expanding at lower higher elevations. Forest threatens ecosystem degradation, crop footprint could lead orchard establishment forests host high diversity native oaks charismatic species, including monarch butterfly.